By Tony Pearce

At the time of writing this article (11/6/08) the cost of oil has almost reached $140 a barrel, more than double the cost of $68.2 a barrel in May 2007. The Russian energy giant Gazprom has warned that crude oil is set to skyrocket to $250 ‘in the foreseeable future.’ At the same time gas and electricity bills have gone up by 11.4% since May 2007. The price of food is also going up. The official measure of food inflation is 6.6% but the price of essential foods is going up by 19.1%.

Trade Minister Baroness Vadera acknowledged that Britain is facing a ‘very testing period’ and said that this is ‘the first real economic crisis of globalisation.’

Various reasons are being given for the crisis, the main ones being these:

1. Oil producing countries are keeping prices artificially high to increase their profits.
2. Wall Street speculators are using scare stories to drive up prices.
3. We are beginning to see the results of ‘Peak Oil.’

If reasons one or two are correct then there is hope that a solution will be found and after a period of some economic turbulence things will calm down and carry on as usual. If reason three is correct then it really could be the beginning of the end of the world as we know it. The cost of petrol will rise regardless of the protests of consumers and the complaints of politicians. It is simple economics – supply and demand.

In January 2006 I wrote a book ‘The House built on the Sand’ (available from us for £6 including postage) in which I quoted Matthew Savinar who said, ‘Some geologists expect 2005 to be the last year of the cheap oil bonanza, while many estimates coming out of the oil industry indicate a seemingly unbridgeable supply-demand gap opening up after 2007.’ Now that we are living after 2007, US Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman has told Congress (22/5/08): ‘The high priced energy environment is being driven by the fact that demand has outstripped supply. We have sopped up all the available spare oil production capacity in the system and there is no silver bullet that will immediately solve our energy challenges or drastically reduce costs at the gas pump.’

Most of the easily obtainable oil in the world has been discovered and output is now falling in 60 out of the world’s 98 oil producing countries, including Britain’s North Sea oil. Even major oil producers like Saudi Arabia have already passed their peak. Matthew Simmons, author of the book ‘Twilight in the Desert’ says that 90% of Saudi oil comes from seven giant oil fields all of which are running down. The world’s largest oil field in Ghawar, Saudi Arabia, was estimated as having 87 billion barrels of oil in 1948 and may have no more than 5 billion barrels left. Even now the Saudis are pumping seawater into the Ghawar oil field to keep the pumping pressure high enough to get out the remaining oil. The Burgan oil field in Kuwait, the world’s second largest, is also past its peak.

Places where there are large untapped fields, in particular the Niger Delta and Iraq, are off limits because of daily violence. Now oil companies are seeking to exploit areas where it is more difficult and expensive to get the oil out like the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico and the Arctic.

The problem is that we have built a society which relies on the plentiful supply of oil for almost everything we do. 90% of our transportation is fuelled by oil. 95% of all goods in shops involve oil use. It is the height of folly to build a system that is based on the assumption that the oil required to keep it going will always be available. Governments are now beginning to wake up to this and they are looking for alternatives to oil, but none of them are adequate. Wind and wave power may be able to supply a small amount of power for electricity but they are useless for transportation. Ethanol is not a good substitute for oil as it uses up arable land and is expensive to produce. In 2006 20% of America’s corn crop went towards producing ethanol which accounted for 4.3% of the petrol sold. So to replace 100% of present US fuel consumption would require 500% of the corn crop. How sensible is it to use corn for feeding cars when people in the world are starving?

Another important issue is the location of the oil producing countries and the oil consuming countries. A chart of the world’s top oil exporters and importers shows the vulnerability of the developed western industrial nations. The top 10 importers of oil are as follows (figures for 2006 in millions of barrels per day): USA (12.22), Japan (5.1), China (3.44), Germany (2.48), South Korea (2.15), France (1.89), India (1.69), Italy (1.56), Spain (1.56), Taiwan (0.94). The top 12 exporters are Saudi Arabia (8.65), Russia (6.57), Norway (2.54), Iran (2.52), United Arab Emirates (2.52), Venezuela (2.2), Kuwait (2.15), Nigeria (2.15), Algeria (1.85), Mexico (1.68), Libya (1.52), Iraq (1.43). Information from http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0922041.html

The major oil importers are located in Europe, North America and the Far East. Apart from Norway and Mexico none of the top oil exporters are countries which can be considered 100% reliable and supportive as far as the interests of Europe and America are concerned. Five are Muslim countries in the Persian Gulf region and two in North Africa. Russia is the second largest exporter and is already showing signs of using its energy resources of oil and gas to regain its super power status in the world.

The Daily Mail (7/6/08) carried an article by Rosie Boycott ‘Nine meals from anarchy’ – the phrase used to describe how looting and riots over food would grip Britain if our oil supplies were suddenly stopped. A few days later (11/6/08) there was an article by Christopher Booker on ‘The Real Fuel Crisis’. ‘Worried about a panic at the pumps? Thanks to decades of government neglect, Britain is set to lose nearly half its electricity in six years. The implications of that are truly terrifying.’

In the event of a crisis blowing up in the Middle East involving Israel and / or Iran, it is not difficult to see a scenario unfolding in which oil from the Persian Gulf could be shut off or severely depleted. If Russia then decides to shut down supplies to Europe and the West, the price of oil would go through the roof. The super rich may still be able to use their cars (with armed bodyguards to protect themselves), but the rest of us would be lucky if we could get around on bicycles.

If you put all this together it raises some serious questions about the viability of our society. Yet few Christians ever think about such things. We are forever hearing prophecies of imminent revival or being told that if we get enough people together to do acts of kindness we will so impress the unbelievers that they will turn back to God. But all this could be suddenly shaken by world events way beyond our control.

I passed by a church which had a poster outside saying ‘Make poverty history.’ I wonder if that should be replaced with a poster saying ‘Make prosperity history.’ If we faced a sudden crisis on a huge scale many people might find themselves questioning their faith, especially if they have been hooked on the prosperity doctrine that God is obliged to provide us with all the luxuries of life as well our necessities. The crisis now unfolding is in fact a judgement of God on the folly of our world which has mocked His message and messengers and trusted in its own wealth and cleverness for so long.

At the same time we pray that this crisis will wake people up to the truth of the Gospel and the prophetic word of God. We should tell people that riches are uncertain in this life, but that there is a certain hope laid up for those who trust in the Lord Jesus. Materialism and pleasure seeking are the main barriers to people thinking about spiritual issues today. Of course there is no certainty that such a crisis would turn people to the Lord. The prophetic scriptures tell us that most people will turn to the Antichrist in the last days. But there is no doubt that when people’s security is shaken they are more likely to look for answers and we need to be ready to tell them the way of salvation.

Such a crisis would make big changes to our churches. Travel would become difficult so going long distances to church may become impossible. Neighbourhood churches ready and able to preach the Gospel and give hope and direction to people in a state of crisis would be vital for spreading the faith. Big evangelistic events with superstar preachers brought in from America would no longer be possible, so if the Gospel is going to be preached it will need local Christians to take the message to the people who live in their area.

In the social unrest that is likely to accompany a major economic crisis, those in authority would have to take measures to enforce order. These may include some suppression of freedom of speech which could lead to Bible believing Christians who share their faith risking persecution. As happened in the Soviet Union there may emerge an official church which does what it is told by the state and an unofficial underground church which is faithful to the Lord and does what He tells us to do.

One of the effects of the oil trade has been a huge transfer of wealth from the western nominal Christian countries to the Islamic countries of the Middle East. This is one reason for the growing submission to Islamic demands in Europe and America and the worldwide spread of Islam. Already our freedom to give reasons why we do not believe that Islam has the true revelation of God is being eroded. Muslims who turn to Christ are finding themselves in danger in the western world as well as in the Middle East. Those who proclaim that the Lord Jesus is the one way to God are discovering that they are not ‘politically correct’ and often face opposition and condemnation from apostate church leaders as well as political leaders.

If we are going stand firm we need a sure hope and understanding of the purpose of both the first and second coming of the Lord Jesus. We need to understand that He came the first time to suffer and die as a sacrifice for our sins and to rise again from the dead to give eternal life to all who believe in His name. We need also to know that He will come again in power and glory and that He will judge the world in righteousness according to how we have responded to the message of the Gospel.

Prophesying the events of His second coming, Jesus spoke of the ‘distress of nations in perplexity’ (Luke 21.25). The phrase used here implies a crisis with no way out. He said these things would cause men’s hearts to ‘fail them for fear’ as they look at what is coming on the world, but to His followers He said, ‘When you see these things begin to happen, look up and lift up your heads, for your redemption is drawing near.’ Luke 21.28.

One of the remarkable features of much of the UK church today is the deletion of the doctrine of the Lord’s return from most pulpits. It seems the nearer we get to the event and the more signs we see of its imminence the less church leaders wish to speak about it. Nevertheless the Bible has a lot to say about it, and warns us of a coming global crisis (the great tribulation) which will affect all nations. Many current events and trends line up exactly with prophecies of the last days. We have produced material available on request for giving to people dealing with such issues.

How do we prepare for such a time? Obviously we should avoid any unnecessary debts, especially building up credit card debt. We should look for ways to conserve energy and prepare for a time when we will have to do without many things we now rely on, including cars. We should also be grounded in the Word of God, not putting our trust in false promises of men, be they politicians or preachers. We should not seek to escape from society by fleeing to a place of refuge in the country, but should be using the time now to warn people of the troubles that lie ahead and to tell them how to be saved through repentance and faith in the Lord Jesus. We are producing material (see end of this magazine) to help you do this.

We should also be realistic in what we tell people. To be honest I am tired of hearing Christians making claims that are questionable and promises they cannot possibly deliver on, especially in the area of health and wealth. The fact is that our society is heading for the judgement of God and the kind of scenario I have outlined here would be a fitting end to a rich decadent society that has treated God’s word and His commandments with contempt. The first message of John the Baptist, the Lord Jesus and the Apostles was ‘Repent’ and it will be the last message of this age also.

How long we have before all these things come to pass and at what point the Rapture of the church will come, only the Lord knows. But we have His command to redeem the time because the days are evil (Ephesians 5.16) and to ‘occupy until I come’ (Luke 19.13).